Psychology of trading.

August 21st, 2006

Now I am trying to choose the market where I can try to speculate. I ask all my friends and many of them advise me to try to speculate at FOREX. Here I write the summarizing of all advices about the trade at FOREX.
You should be morally ready to probable losses of committed finances. All participants in gamble in market FOREX are divided on two big groups depending on that approach to FOREX which they profess.
 The first group - the people wishing fast to take the maximum profit on committed finances without essential time temporary, intellectual both financial expenses, and evaluating FOREX as something similar to game in a roulette in a casino.
The second group - the people suitable to FOREX as to the serious financial market, deeply studying the theory and ready to spend is a lot of time and efforts to learn correct work in this market, and with the course of time to start to earn essential and, the most important, stable profit. Thus it is necessary to understand that FOREX in this sense it is very flexible and gives a field of action both for those, and for others. The spectrum of probable results is very great. At successful coincidence of circumstances it is possible, not possessing even elements of the market to double an ownership capital for 1 day. On the other hand, for large financial institutions in the West comprehensible yield in this market is the level of 20-60% per annum on the invested capital. These are two poles in possible strategy in this market. The game approach allows earning fast lump sum, but sustains risk of instant loss of all funds and has no long prospect. The market approach allows earning at the certain persistence decent money with limited enough risks. And before entering the market you for it should define, to what of poles you will be closer during the work.
Define in advance, that you wish to receive from the market, for what term, with what expenses and risks. Depending on the selected strategy of game on FOREX you should define for yourselves that time with which you are ready to allocate for studying market FOREX. At desire quickly to earn it is enough to study one book in the size in 200-300 pages, containing substantive provisions and concepts of market FOREX, and to start the beginning of operations. Thus the probability of a prize will change about 50% and to tend to downturn at increase in quantity of operations. More serious approach demands initially studying of a maximum quantity of an available information for full understanding of all bases of the market, available tools and methods of the analysis and forecasting of the market which can raise quality of your trade. Unnecessarily in the trade to use all existing ways and methods of forecasting and the analysis, but their knowledge and skill to apply them will allow to develop as much as possible effective system of the trades without which successful long trade is simply impossible.
Find the greatest possible quantity of time for studying the theory before the beginning of practice. It is necessary to find also in the life any part of time directly for participation during trade. Quantity of spent time for acquaintance with the current information, forecasting of the market, the analysis of own results more often in direct ratio received profit. Rash operations seldom enough lead to notable positive results. And even the earned profit at absence of the analysis and systematization in work is quickly lost in next transactions. Thus, all again depends on time.
The major stage before decision-making on the beginning of real game in market FOREX is definition of the size of money resources which you are ready to risk for reception of profit. Any speculative market, and market FOREX in particular, is interfaced to risk of loss of the committed finances. Therefore never put in game more money, than you are ready to lose. Possible losses (from which are not insured even professionals) should not become for you a financial trouble. Do not play on extra funds or for last means postponed for “rainy day”. Market FOREX far not that place where it is possible quickly and without problems to increase greatly a seed capital. It or risky game for the people possessing free money and ready is painless for them to lose, or long and laborious work on purchase of the skills capable in the future to bring the essential income on the invested capital. Therefore primary you should are morally ready to loss of means and to define that sum of funds which loss will be rather painless for your budget. Probably, it also will not occur, but to realize such opportunity better in advance, than to receive financial both psychological impact and feeling of desperation after already it is impossible to correct anything.
After you all the same have made a decision on test of the forces in market FOREX, the major stage becomes a choice of the partner or, easier speaking, the broker through whom will pass your operations. Even at brilliant possession of the theory and practice of the market the certain moments in activity of the intermediary between you and the market can reduce “on there is no” all your efforts and even to serve as the reason of losses. Therefore, before to begin trade, it is necessary to spend the certain efforts to a choice of the good partner. For this purpose it is necessary to collect more information on brokers working in the market, on their financial conditions and reputations. Various brokers offer commissions differing from each other, spreads, percent and the software for trade. The size of the commission, a spread, speed and convenience of the program, and also quality of the offered information on the market can render huge influence on an end result of your work. However, attractive financial conditions by all means should be combined with good reputation and long for works in the market. Otherwise even the earned funds can be for ever lost because of untidiness of the broker that is not for today such unusual occurrence.
At a choice of the broker, besides acquaintance with financial operating conditions, it is necessary to familiarize and test by all means the software which becomes the tool for execution of your will in the market. Different brokers offer their own programs written in different languages and possessing a different degree of speed, reliability, convenience and a various tooling of the analysis. Practically all intermediaries suggest to take advantage of their programs in a demonstration mode, and some people by means of them and to participate in free-of-charge competitions with monetary prize-winning fund. It is desirable to try for comparison some similar intermediaries on offered conditions. Necessarily spend not less than month for game in a demonstration mode, combining it with studying the theory of the market, testing the received knowledge in practice. It will allow you not only to check up quality and convenience of the software, but also you to check up more and more time necessity of the introduction into game on real money. Quality of work of the program and the personnel of the intermediary in a demonstration mode in many speaks about what quality can receive final service, having opened the real account. Constantly analyze results of own work and quality of service. A unique major condition in a demo-game is that with virtual money you should try to address also carefully as with real. Frequently game in a demonstration mode can force you not only replace the prospective intermediary, but also in general to make a decision on undesirability of your participation in game in the financial markets. Far not each person is capable to work successfully in the financial markets: the clear intellect is necessary for this purpose, endurance, skill to risk still more many other individual qualities.
During demonstration trade try to define precisely those tools and information sources which you will use at decision-making on fulfillment of transactions. Also, even prior to the beginning of real trade, it is necessary to define tactics of fulfillment of transactions. As you will often open positions, how much long you will hold the open positions in what the moments will make transactions, as well as in what size you will limit possible losses under the transaction, what part of the capital will use at fulfillment of each separate transaction - all is questions, answers on which will render very essential influence on end results. Besides allocate from huge weight of sources of the information and indicators of the market for itself what, in your opinion, are reliable and correspond to chosen tactics. In language of professionals it refers to as development of own trading system. In fulfillment of financial operations the order and complexity is necessary. The intuition and feeling of the market, undoubtedly, are an important point in decision-making, but they should not be principal causes for fulfillment of the transaction at all. Having developed the certain system of trade, it is necessary to recede from it only in the extreme cases. It is necessary to analyze constantly results of own system, to bring corrective amendments and constantly to improve it. Chaotic trade is a direct way to loss of the committed finances.
Starting real trade, it is necessary to understand firmly, that game in a demonstration mode or as speak, “on a paper” very essentially differs from real game on “real” money. The difference is comparable to sensations of the same sportsmen on training and in the world championship. At real game each movement of a rate is expressed in quite concrete sum of your means, and it puts huge psychological pressure upon the person. Even quite successful players at the slightest failure can lose a head and ability to sober thinking and the analysis. But also excessive euphoria from the received prize can play with you a malicious jest.
Develop own system of successful trade and strictly follow it. Having chosen trading strategy and tactics, having developed own trading system, do not wait, that 100% of transactions become profitable. Any professional makes both profitable and unprofitable transactions. It is important, that the quantity and total result of profitable transactions exceeded the same parameters unprofitable. The best professionals approximately only in 70% of cases reach positive result under the transaction. The profit earns during the long period of time at the cost of excess of the size of the total income over losses. Therefore the individual unprofitable transaction should not upset and unsettle you. You only should analyze closely the reasons which have led to losses and to improve own system of trade in due course to achieve stable growth of results.

On what you should stop to trade with profit?

July 25th, 2006

Yesterday I spoke with my friend who speculates at Forex. I’ve asked him give me several good advices that I can follow.
In this post I have made attempt to generalize his numerous answers in this occasion. At once I wish to make a reservation, that if someone will consider necessary to criticize or argue, it will be only welcomed.
So, let’s move under the order:
1. A choice of strategy.
It will be not necessary to be scattered on studying of all techniques which come across to you, and after acquaintance with several techniques stop only on one and study it as it is possible more in detail.
Yes, for the beginning it is necessary to master only one technique, one reception and if it to turn out, the success in your trade will take place.
Ultimate goal of our stay in the market is reception of profits, instead of research of various strategies :)
To be defined, what to choose for the beginning happens difficultly enough, therefore choose, that is better clearly and simply in recurrence (realization).
Is better, for the beginning to use strategy of following for trend - they are more simple and are clear in realization.
2. It is necessary to learn to wait.
In trade we not always realize it with our initially limited arsenal of receptions and we aspire at convenient, inconvenient in general any case to hold a position, in hope to receive profits. The real greater movements in the market happens not so much here again first of all certainly it is necessary to catch them, then to receive profits. And if you have received profit it is necessary not to lose it. For this purpose it is necessary to choose the successful moment, i.e. easy and not hurrying up to define the situation in which you can apply your strategy and only after that to enter into the market.
Needless to say that such moments can take place not every day and consequently probably most difficult it patiently to wait.
3. It is necessary never to catch up with a situation.
It happens that you see on the monitor, that the market has moved without you. It is insulting and annoyingly, for non-realized opportunities. But here is better to have patience and wait a following opportunity. Otherwise you risk joining movement on its most peaks, to receive recoil and accordingly losses.
4. Now about losses.
With them it is necessary to be defined at once, i.e. to define which stop-loss you expose at once at opening a position.
You begin a demo-account with that sum with which will start to work in real. Do not take a great interest in greater stops, find “golden mean”. Too small stops will work is more often, and too it will be more difficult to compensate greater, in the general result and on another it is possible to lose the deposit. Therefore stops should be in each case should be proved.
The attitude to losses if they have been planned should not be negative, is better to perceive it as the next occasion for reflections and improvements of the methods.
5. Be especially intent after greater successes.
More often after the big success greater mistakes turn out very often. The trader tries to repeat the success - but the situation any more has no, all is mistaken, tries to recoup quickly… in general successes are brought to nothing, and is even worse if to losses. If feel uncertainty after the received big profit, wait this moment is better. Emotions overflow you, and in trade they only stir.
6. When you in the beginning of a way never count on money received on Forex - nothing to turn out.
In this case it is additional emotional loading which will prevent to make only correct trading decisions. It is necessary to be very much and very quiet trading on the market, for example as a boa. Therefore firstly you should have an additional source of earnings on which you can eat and drink, and also periodically fill up the deposit - yet do not learn :)
7. Rest.
Rest is an integral part of activity of the trader, especially on becoming. If you consider that it only in vain spent time, it not so. By the experience my friend can tell that many interesting and serious decisions to him came just at that time when he had a rest - on holidays, in the country, on the journey, etc., or after rest, i.e. ‘with a clear head’. Therefore rest as well as work is necessary for planning, too.
8. The attitude.
Think about trade as a serious work, as well as in any work where application of special knowledge is required. First of all it is necessary to seize this knowledge. Receive special skills and only after that start to work. Do not transform the activity on Forex into hazardous entertainment :)

A very little more about advices.

July 21st, 2006

This post is just a very little more advice about trade at the Stock exchange that I could collect.
1. Always pay more attention to behavior of the market and formation of price models, than to target levels and areas of support/resistance. The last can often cause that your correct opinion concerning the market will change prematurely.
2. When you feel, that it is necessary to take actions - either to open a position, or to leave it, - take actions immediately.
3. Never act against own opinion in occasion of a long-term trend of the market. In other words, do not try to sit on two chairs.
4. Advantageous positions, as a rule, have positive reassessment from the very beginning.
5. The correct choice of time for opening a position and an output from it (for example, a choice of the moment of an input on the basis of convincing price formations, an immediate output at the first sign of failure) can often save from greater losses, even if a position is unprofitable.
6. Intraday time decisions are almost always incorrect. Be not engaged in intraday time trade.
7. Necessarily check the markets before closing on Friday. The situation is often visible more clearly by a weekend. In similar cases the best price of an input or an output can be usually received before closing on Friday, than at opening a stock exchange on next Monday.
8. Dreams about the market can quite form the basis for actions (when memoirs on them unambiguously). Such dreams often come true, as they represent your subconscious knowledge of the market which makes the way through the barriers established by conscious thinking (for example, ” As I can buy here if I could open a long position on $2000 below last week? “).
9. You cannot have immunity from bad trading habits. The best that you can make is to suppress them. Day and negligence will quickly lead to their returning.

Forex. How not to become penniless.

July 20th, 2006

Forex, the greatest international market for currency exchange, is becoming more and more popular all around the world. A lot of people, though, take this financial phenomenon too easy, trying to get of it an inexhaustible source of wealth, notwithstanding that a lot of people have already lost their fortune trying to augment it.
So, how to escape this kind of lot? How to avoid common mistakes and stay profitable?
 

Let’s consider a man completely new to markets, trading and technical analysis, who has invested all his capital into currency trading. In his attempt to become rich and famous, he is always anxious about his capital, getting nerves and losing self-control every time when the market is against him, or when the trend is about to reverse.
The first thing one should do in order to become successful in foreign currency trading is to start working on self-improvement. Discipline is one’s key factor if one is tending to be a successful investor or trader. Thus, one should give away the thought, that life depends on profit/loss and stay cool whatever the market condition is – forget about money as money itself!
 

Let’s proceed further in our tiny research. Have you ever heard of a famous financier, who has made his fortune overnight, just having staked thoughtlessly? Neither have I. Even Geo. Soros had made a reasonable economic research before having decided that English Pound was underestimated and was worth buying. (That has made him very rich, by the way) So one should admit that currency trading is a hard job and it should be regarded correspondingly, not just as a hobby. One has to develop a reasonable trading strategy, be it simple or complicated, and follow it.
 

So what to begin with? First – start reading more. Read, read and read. There are numerous sources of information in the World Wide Web… Subscribe to the latest newsletters, read economic reviews and surveys, articles on technical analysis, follow the latest trends in the trading world. Broaden your horizons – the more intelligent you are – the more achievements are waiting for you.
Then invent your own strategy, as mentioned above. It might sound complicated, but everything comes with experience   Be always inspired. Do not let your faults bring you down, but try to stay disciplined at the same time.
You also have to make a choice, what kind of trader you are. If you are a long-term investor, you should try to follow the world’s leading financial agencies’ forecasts and advices.
If you see yourself as a short-term investor, working in high-risk environment of volatile currency market, you should devote more time to technical analysis studies.
 

If you feel that you are not so self-confident yet, you might find it comfortable for yourself to try a demo-account, a lot of market brokers nowadays provide their customers with this kind of service. In a demo account you operate with virtual money, which nevertheless allows you to get recent currency quotes from real market. Opening a demo account gives you a brilliant opportunity to work through your strategy and improve your trading tactics.
 

Anyway, let currency exchange market be your friend, do not be afraid of it. To the contrary - study it, and soon you yourself will be able to counsel on how to become successful in currency trading. Good luck!

Keeping of profitable positions and output from them.

July 19th, 2006

 As I have promised I tried to find as many as I can advices for those investors who only begin to trade. So herewith you can find several advices for keeping of profitable positions and output from them.
1. Do not fix small fast profit on transactions in directions of the main trends. In particular, if you are absolutely assured of the transaction, never fix profit in the first day.
2. Do not hasten to close a position after occurrence of break in your direction. Use break as an initial stop; then enter following stops.
3. Try to use following stops, placing them proceeding from development of a market situation instead of fixing profit at target levels. Use of the purposes often prevents to realize completely the opportunities given by the main trends. Remember, from time to time greater victories are necessary to you to block failures.
4. Despite of the previous rule, all the same it is useful to define the initial purpose during the moment of opening of the transaction that will allow to apply a following rule: if during a short time interval after the open position the most part of target profit (for example, 50-60 % for one week or 75-80 % for two or three weeks) it is necessary to fix profit parts is reached, meaning restoration of the liquidated contracts at correction of the market. The idea consists that would be correct to take fast significant profit. Though this rule can often lead to loss of the remained part of profit on the liquidated position, keeping of a position in a similar case can often conduct to feverish liquidation at the first sharp return of the prices.
5. If the purpose is reached, but the position still is pleasant to all of you, leave it, using a following stop. This rule is important from the point of view of opportunity to trade in a direction of the main trend. Remember, the patience is necessary not only during those moments, when you wait for good transactions but also to not close a position when it makes a profit. Inability to receive adequate profit on the correct transaction in a direction of a trend is the key factor limiting profitableness of trade.
6. One private exception of the previous rule is that if at you very much the greater position and cost of your actives grows on eyes it is necessary to consider an opportunity of partial fixing of profit. When all goes too well to be the truth, be on the alert! Probably, it is time to start to fix gradually profit and to place close following stops.
7. At fixing of profit have arrived in the transaction which, in your opinion, still has long-term potential (but, probably, it is vulnerable from the point of view of short-term correction), develop the plan of renewal of a position. If the market will not make the essential return, allowing to renew a position, watch occurrence of price models which can be used for a choice of the moment of a new input in the market. Be not afraid to open again a position even if the new point of an input in the market appears worse, than a point of an output if representations about long term of a trend and an estimation of a present situation assume renewal of a position. Inability to return to the market at the worst price can often conduct to loss of the basic part of greater trends.
8. When trade in several contracts, avoid an emotional trap which consists in desire to be right on 100 %. In other words, fix profit parts. Always try to keep, at least, a partial position in a direction of a trend - until the market will not generate convincing turning figure or will not reach the important protective stop.

Even Pokemon can bring to ruin trader…

July 6th, 2006

 

Pokemon_logo.jpg

 

When I tried to find as many as possible advices of different traders I stumbled across the story of a trader. To my mind this story is the best illustration of that things or that behavior you and I shouldn’t repeat. As I have already said we MUST learn wisdom by the follies of others.
 Anyway… At that time (it was 1999) he had already trade a month (his initial capital was $10000). His results were quite impressive – 75%. All deals made a profit. If there was any unprofitable position he immediately closed it. He was too lazy to wait when they would become profitable. At that moment it turned up to him that “devilish” security with ticker tape KIDE. That day it had risen till $45. At the same time it had cost a week ago only $29. From personal experience he knew that in the near future prices had to fall. That’s why he opened a short position at $46. The security was cheap. He had about $17500х2=$35000 and sold 200 stocks.
 The price didn’t fall and quite the contrary rose till $50. Loss was 200х-5=-$1000. But the drop in prices was obvious. He sold in addition 200 stocks at the price of $50. In a few days the price was $63. He closed all other’s positions and sold another 200 stocks at the price of $61. He was sure that the price would begin to fall. And it really began…
 Before he had glance over the news about this company and knew why the rise of stocks took place. Famous Japanese corporation had agreed with KIDE that KIDE would be a distributor of licenses of this corporation for its invention POKEMON. The trader decided that this was a new computer knickknack, very useful, but not for a long time. And the fall of prices strengthened his confidence. But he was mistaken. After short-term fall till $55 the prices whirl upward till $70 and the next day till $80. He rushed to investigate what was the POKEMON and discovered that it wasn’t a computer knickknack it was a new-coined fictitious being. He understood about what licenses were said in news. The most powerful American industry went into the action. Manufacturers began to replicate actively this creature on T-shirts, badges, caps, etc… IT WAS A CATASTROPHE!!! Next day stocks rose till $90. His account was about ONLY $1000, his broker sent him margin calls one by another. The broker demanded extra money and threatened to squeeze.
My logic told to me that this marasmus wouldn’t continue for a long time. No earnings from sell of licenses were unable to justify such rise of stocks during the month for 300%! And he had only one hope that he wouldn’t squeeze until it came to the end. To find extra money was impossible. And where were guarantees, that the market wouldn’t eat up this extra money before began to correct. Really the stock-jobbing began to fall. The prices were about $70. But the market is inertial. The new wave of price rise began. And he was squeeze at the price of $88. His account was about $3000 and the broker allegedly did him a service, because the securities rose till $95. But from this point Stocks of KIDE began to fall. And after 3 weeks the price was already $45. And after month it was $20. He was right but he lost almost all his capital… :(
P.S. To restore his capital he needed 2 months, but he didn’t speculate with KIDE stocks.
To my mind this trader made several crucial mistakes:
• he hoped, but the market isn’t the place for hope;
• he was too greedy for money to stop when he had a chance not to lose.
I hope that I will never make the same mistakes!!! :)

Do NOT repeat other’s mistakes!!!

July 5th, 2006

    The majority of people profit only by their own mistakes. And I am not an exception more often than not.   

    But when it comes down to your money and your well-being (especially the well-being of your family) you have no the right to make a mistake. That’s why I decided to familiarize with advices of other traders. Now I want to impart the most important and useful (in my opinion) advices to you.
  1. You should focus on trade on long-term positions, because they usually are more profitable. The mistake of many traders is that they try to catch short-term market fluctuations and overlook the main price development.
  2. If you believe that exist long-term trade possibilities, do NOT try to wait till somewhat better price to open a position.
  3. The opening of any long-term position always should be well planning and thought-out. You cannot do it without cogitation. Do not give in to impulse.
  4.  Place orders, determining its levels with the help of daily analysis. If the market doesn’t approach to wishful level of opening deal write down the trade idea. Then revise it daily until the position will be opened or trade idea stop to seem attractive to you. Incapacity to conform to this rule may lead to omission of good penny-worth. It’s a wide-spread situation: traders remember about trade idea when the market has already gone from supposed price of the beginning of deal. And afterwards it would be difficult to consummate transaction at worse price.
  5. If, when you look at graph, you have instinctive impression you should follow it!
  6. Fact, that you have missed sizeable part of new trend, shouldn’t hold you back from using it.
  7. More often than not use at best instead of limit. It is especially important when you close sacrifice position or open a position concerned with favourable opportunity for long-term deal.
  8. Never increase a position close to initial entry point to trade after the market has already been on favourable for your position territory and has return to initial prices.
  9. Decide about the level of safeguard stop at the moment of opening of position.
  10. Disaffiliate with any deal if newly formed price models or market behavior are opposite to the direction of your position (even if the stop point doesn’t reach).
  11. In any case immediately close the deal the moment its initial suppositions are getting broken.
  12. If during the first day of your trade it become obvious, that you are fundamentally not right you should immediately close the deal.
  13. Do not relax while having the open position.
  14. Fight against temptation immediately return to the market after fixation of losses during the fulfillment of safeguard stop.
  15. When trade is bad:
   • Reduce dimensions of position;
   • Use close safeguard stops;
   • Do not hurry with the opening of new positions.
  16. When trade is bad reduce risks. Liquidate unprofitable positions instead of profitable ones.
  17. Do not change methods of trade after profit earning.
  18. Avoid holding too many open positions at the moment of publication of important economic data or governmental statistics.

So, today this is all advices that I have found, but I will try to search more…:)

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